Head 2 Head Playoffs Final Round: Top Value Plays

[Topher Dean]

I got bit of a bug over the holidays so I apologize to my tens of loyal readers expecting these ratings yesterday. It’s the final round of the playoffs and if you find yourself trailing then it’s time to nail a huge lineup and overcome that deficit And if you, like me, went with Chase Daniel in round one then you’re no doubt looking to make up a lot of ground. Here are the players that can
help you do that:

Top 5 Value Quarterbacks

1) Graham Harrell, Texas Tech (19.3M, 76.15 efficiency rating)

Opponent: Mississippi in Cotton Bowl

Points in Last Game: 23

Season High: 60

Analysis: The big question here is with weeks of preparation can the Rebels figure how to contain Harrell and the high-flying Red-Raider attack? Ole Miss is on a hot streak of late winning their last five conference games and doing so with stellar defensive play. However, none of those teams can even come close to the fire power of Texas Tech. Look for Harrell to play angry here in the wake of him not being invited to the Heisman ceremony.

2) Sam Bradford, Oklahoma (20.0M, 73.23 efficiency rating)

Opponent: Florida in BCS Championship

Points in Last Game: 27

Season High: 48

Analysis: The 2008 Heisman Trophy winner versus the 2007 Heisman Trophy winner. Does it get any better than that? Although Bradford is the leading scorer in H2H (which lends to his monstrous salary), I don’t expect him to put up the same kind of numbers we’ve been seeing from him all season. I think the Sooners will focus more on their running game in an attempt to keep the Gator attack off the field. In all honesty, I think your salary cap dollars are wisely spent elsewhere.

3) Colt McCoy, Texas (18.8M, 69.47 efficiency rating)

Opponent: Ohio State in Fiesta Bowl

Points in Last Game: 40

Season High: 51

Analysis: The Buckeye defense has a tall order in this one. They haven’t faced anyone resembling Texas since USC early in the season and we all know how that turned out. Texas will look to put a huge exclamation point on this one and hope that Oklahoma squeaks by Florida so they can lay their verbal claim to the title. That means big points for McCoy and the Longhorn offense. This is your safest bet on the board.

4) Tim Tebow, Florida (17.8M, 53.04 efficiency rating)

Opponent: Oklahoma in BCS Championship

Points in Last Game: 31

Analysis: Tebow doesn’t light it up through the air but it’s his threat on the ground that earns him a top value rating. The Sooners have a knack for holding opposing quarterbacks in check who are used to a lot of H2H success. Playing Tebow is a bit of a gamble in my opinion but you could do far worse. You might be better served to let other owners have Tebow and hope for him to tank while you find value elsewhere.

5) Joe Ganz, Nebraska(17.0M, 40.00 efficiency rating)

Opponent: Clemson in Gator Bowl

Points in Last Game: 21

Season High: 41

Analysis: Clemson owned the second best pass defense in the ACC so at first glance you might think Ganz is someone to stay away from. I’m actually going to call him a sleeper play and here’s why: 8 out of 12 teams in the ACC held opponents under 200 yards passing per outing. That’s more of a testament to the lack of passing attacks in the ACC rather than dominant defenses. Nebraska had the sixth best passing offense in the Big 12 sandwiched between Texas (McCoy) and Kansas State (Freeman). Not bad company.

Best bet: Colt McCoy

Top 5 Value Running Backs

1) Baron Batch, Texas Tech (4.5M, 71.55 efficiency rating)

Opponent: Mississippi in Cotton Bowl

Points in Last Game: 23

Season High: 27

Analysis: Batch sort of gets lost in the shuffle amongst all his other high scoring teammates so may come as a shock to see that he’s averaging nearly 17 points per game. With quarterbacks as pricey as they are (and yes you have to take one of them) there is a great need for a point producer at a bargain salary. With the Topher Index (patent pending) the cream always rises to the top and this folks is your diamond in the rough.

2) Chirs Ogbonnaya, Texas (3.9M, 61.90 efficiency rating)

Opponent: Ohio State in Fiesta Bowl

Points in Last Game: 6

Season High: 36

Analysis: The risk with starting Texas running backs is you never know who is going to be “the guy” on any given day. Ogbonnaya has run the gamut this season scoring anywhere from 0 to his season high of 36 against Colorado. Although this is a risk play, you don’t really have that many dollars riding on it and if you want two big time wide receivers along with flexing a quarterback C.O. is a good option as your third running back

3) John Goebel, Cincinnati (3.1M, 47.63 efficiency rating)

Opponent: Virginia Tech in Orange Bowl

Points in Last Game: 5

Season High: 20

Analysis: Goebel takes care of business around the goal line for the Bearcats however their matchup with Virginia Tech doesn’t bode well for long sustained drives culminating with one yard touchdown plunges. The Bearcats are going to score here but it will be via the big play through their wideouts. Again, if you need cheap running backs see #1 and #2.

4) Javon Ringer, Michigan State (16.5M, 46.38 efficiency rating)

Opponent: Georgia in Capital One Bowl

Points in Last Game: 16

Season High: 44

Analysis: The Michigan State Ringers…I mean…Spartans have the difficult task of taking on one of the better defenses in college football. This will be the ultimate test for Ringer and at 16.5 million if he doesn’t produce you can kiss the grand prize goodbye. Take solace in the fact that Ringer has been well tested against the solid run defenses of the Big Ten and is still a consistent point producer. Ringer will look to showcase his game here in his second to final game audition for the next level. At this price he’s a slight risk but only two games this season has he not found the end zone.

5) Donald Brown, Connecticut (15.8M, 46.04 efficiency rating)

Opponent: Buffalo in International Bowl

Points in Last Game: 26

Season High: 46

Analysis: This is a matchup to get excited about. This will pit the most consistent running back in the game against a mid-major team that gave up 28 rushing touchdowns in 13 conference games. If the MAC’s best rusher, Ball State’s MiQuale Lewis, was able to go for 41 in a losing effort against Buffalo I can’t wait to see what arguably the nation’s best running back can do.

Best Bet: Donald Brown

Top 5 Value Wide Receivers

1) Dominick Goodman, Cincinnati(6.4M, 54.26 efficiency rating)

Opponent: Virginia Tech in Orange Bowl

Points in Last Game: 15

Season High: 36

Analysis: Goodman will return from injury to face a stout Hokie defense in the Orange Bowl. While, his running mate Mardy Gilyard gets most of the run, Goodman is by far the better value at only 6.4 million. Look for the Hokies to place most of their attention on Gilyard allowing Goodman to reap the benefits. He’s a must play here.

2) Michael Crabtree, Texas Tech (13.2M, 54.02 efficiency rating)

Opponent: Mississippi in Cotton Bowl

Points in Last Game: 15

Season High: 42

Analysis: In this the round to decide the grand prize winner, having the nation’s most prolific receiver in your lineup is a no-brainer. Crabtree’s salary was actually lowered slightly for the playoffs which bodes will in the budget restricted times with all the dough on the line. Ole’ Miss will focus all their attention on stopping Crabtree but don’t let that discourage you as defenses have been doing that all season yet he still produces. I don’t think 30 points is too much to ask in what should be Crabtree’s final game before turning pro.

3) Jordan Norwood, Penn State (4.4M, 48.91 efficiency rating)

Opponent: USC in Rose Bowl

Points in Last Game: 17

Season High: 28

Analysis: Had Norwood actually not missed 3 games in all likelihood he would enter the Rose Bowl and the Nittany Lions’ leading wide receiver. At significantly less salary than his teammate Deon Butler this is another case where you’re better suited looking to Robin for help rather than Batman. I don’t see Penn State’s rushing attack getting the job done and if they fall behind to USC early they should take to the air which means points for you at clearance prices.

4) Dexter McCluster, Mississippi (5.5M, 45.54 efficiency rating)

Opponent: Texas Tech in Cotton Bowl

Points in Last Game: 1

Season High: 20

Analysis: The diminutive junior wide receiver for the Rebels hasn’t put up staggering numbers this year by any means. This is strictly a matchup play and with Texas Tech likely to be ahead for most of the game, Ole’ Miss will have to get their aerial attack in gear as well. McCluster is a bit of risk here because he has disappeared in some games but I don’t think this will be one of them and if you can hit a jackpot with a player scarcely owned by other teams that will pay huge dividends.

5) Mark Dell, Michigan State (3.6M, 45.52 efficiency rating)

Opponent: Georgia in Capital One Bowl

Points in Last Game: 15

Season High: 35

Analysis: The Spartans will run and run often with Ringer but in the event they find themselves trailing, Dell should play a huge role in this one. He seems like another risk play but at only 3.6 million you aren’t betting the farm on him. If you’re searching for the bargain wide receiver for your three spot Norwood should be you’re guy but if you’re cap is too restricted you could do worse than Mark Dell.

Best Bet: Michael Crabtree

Top 5 Value Kickers

Are you serious? If winning your game comes down to the kicker, then you, my
friend, have done a poor job in selecting your lineup. All kidding aside, the range in
value from the best kicker to the worst kicker is negligible so you might as well play
pin the tail on the kicker. Or do what everyone else does and fill the other positions
and see what you have left. Honestly, I’m 14-0 and the kicker wasn’t the difference in
any of them.

Best Bet: Hunter Lawrence, Texas (Why? Because he’s all I can afford)

5 Defenses I Like

Cincinnati vs. Virginia Tech

UConn vs. Buffalo

Kentucky vs. East Carolina

Alabama vs. Utah

Iowa vs. South Carolina

Best Bet: Alabama

HAPPY NEW YEAR!!!