H2H Playoffs Round 1: Top Value Plays

[Topher Dean]

Welcome to the playoffs! You had great season but you can forget all about it starting...now. You have zero points. You probably have an invalid lineup and even though you may have went 14-0 you could still get outcoached by the guy that went 4-10 and stumbled into the playoffs based on points. You can say your goodbyes to guys like Chase Coffman and Jermaine Gresham. They have no place in your playoff lineups at their new prices. They earned their pay raises but with us they just earned a slab of pine. Some old faces are still pertinent but there are a lot of new ones as well, so do your homework even though I already did most of it for you.

The ratings for round one of the H2H playoffs only include those players participating in bowl games prior to January 1. Check back for round two of the H2H playoffs as those ratings will be released on December 29.

Top 5 Value Quarterbacks

1) Chase Daniel, Missouri (17.5M, 52.77 efficiency rating)

Opponent: Northwestern in Alamo Bowl

Points in Last Game: 23

Season High: 43

Analysis: Big Ten schools are in for serious tests as this is one of three matchups

against the high-flying offenses of the Big XII. Northwestern ranks in the bottom

half of the Big Ten in pass defense and that’s merely against the modest in-

conference passing attacks. Expect the Tigers to rack up a ton of frequent flyer

miles in this one with Chase Daniel leading the way.

2) Todd Reesing, Kansas (17.2M, 45.46 efficiency rating)

Opponent: Minnesota in Insight Bowl

Points in Last Game: 36

Season High: 38

Analysis: In another showdown between the Big Ten and Big XII, Reesing and

the Jayhawks will face the Big Ten’s second worst pass defense. With a team of

receivers with distinct skill sets including Dezmond Briscoe and Kerry Meier

expect Reesing to have no shortage in his arsenal and the Gophers to have no

answer for any of them. If Iowa’s Ricky Stanzi can throw for 255 and 3 scores, I

can’t wait to see Reesing “Gopher” it.

3) Zac Robinson, Oklahoma State (17.4M, 45.10 efficiency rating)

Opponent: Oregon in Holiday Bowl

Points in Last Game: 41

Season High: 49

Analysis: If you like offense you have to tune in for this matchup. With two

defensively challenged teams, we should see well over 1,000 yards of total

offense in this one. Although Robinson doesn’t get near the notoriety that Daniel

and Reesing do, let me assure you his H2H numbers are right there. You can’t go

wrong with any one of these three (or two if you’re flexing a QB).

4) Pat White, West Virginia (16.9M, 44.53 efficiency rating)

Opponent: North Carolina in Meineke Bowl

Points in Last Game: 15

Season High: 55

Analysis: White is someone I would stay away from. He is just too inconsistent.

He could go for 50 or 5, you just never know. Owners can’t afford the possibility

of their quarterback position putting up single digits. With ample time to study a

quarterback whose best asset is his legs, I am apt to believe a decent Tarheels’

defense will find a way to contain White.

5) Jeremiah Masoli, Oregon (15.1M, 29.48 efficiency rating)

Opponent: Oklahoma State in Holiday Bowl

Points in Last Game: 39

Season High: 49

Analysis: Going with Masoli here is definitely a risk. However with so many

owners locked in on Daniel, Reesing, and Robinson, if Masoli can put up big

numbers against the Cowboys (at only 15.1 million) owners can afford a bigger

name that Daniel, Reesing and Robinson backers can’t. Masoli has accounted for

nine touchdowns in his last two games so he definitely has the hot hand. He

might just be worth the gamble here. Oh, and he’s also Kellie’s lock. That’s got

to count for something.

Best bet: Todd Reesing

Top 5 Value Running Backs

1) Andre Brown, North Carolina State (3.3M, 72.18 efficiency rating)

Opponent: Rutgers in Papajohns.com Bowl

Points in Last Game: 23

Season High: 26

Analysis: The Wolfpack utilize a three-headed monster as their rushing attack but

Brown is the center head carrying the rock 46% of the time. The Scarlet Knights

have the second worst rush defense in the Big East. Brown was good for 23 in

the Wolfpack’s last game against a respectable defense in Miami. A dual threat,

Brown should be good for double figures here and at only 3.3 million he’s a steal.

Consider these bonus points.

2) Armando Allen, Notre Dame (3.4M, 55.67 efficiency rating)

Opponent: Hawaii in Hawaii Bowl

Points in Last Game: 3

Season High: 28

Analysis: Of the defenses playing in this H2H period Hawaii is the worst at

stopping the run. Allen is the Irish’s number one back and also ranks second on

the team in receptions. When Notre Dame is competitive, Allen is a bargain at

3.4 million. However, Notre Dame hasn’t won a bowl game since 1994 (that’s 8

straight losses if you’re counting) so Allen is somewhat of risk.

3) Tyrell Sutton, Northwestern (10.4M, 52.63 efficiency rating)

Opponent: Missouri in Alamo Bowl

Points in Last Game: 16

Season High: 34

Analysis: Sutton missed the last four games of the season with a wrist injury that

required surgery. He will most likely be listed questionable when the Wildcats

face Mizzou. Before his injury Sutton was averaging over 20 points per game and

if he plays in this one he should have some success. You definitely can’t afford

zeroes at this point so if you’re leaning towards Sutton keep an eye on his status.

4) LeSean McCoy, Pittsburgh (16.3M, 47.28 efficiency rating)

Opponent: Oregon State in Sun Bowl

Points in Last Game: 18

Season High: 44

Analysis: The Beavers gave up a mind-boggling 385 rushing yards in their final

regular season game against Oregon. This super-soph has to be licking his chops

over this matchup. A 200-yard performance is likely and even if it seems like

you’re breaking the bank in buying McCoy at 16.3 million, you can’t afford not to

have him in your lineup.

5) Montel Harris, Boston College (3.3M, 45.83 efficiency rating)

Opponent: Vanderbilt in Music City Bowl

Points in Last Game: 11

Season High: 32

Analysis: The Commodores are allowing opponents to rush for 145 yards per

game this season. Boston College will have to get the running game going early

in order for Harris to have success. He has five 100 yard rushing games this

season but has essentially disappeared in six other contests. I recommend only

starting one “bargain” running back and simply put—there are better options

available.

Best Bet: LeSean McCoy

Top 5 Value Wide Receivers

1) Hakeem Nicks, North Carolina (2.4M, 152.83 efficiency rating)

Opponent: West Virginia in Meineke Bowl

Points in Last Game: 12

Season High: 39

Analysis: Let me begin by saying this is the highest efficiency rating since my

system’s genesis. Now, the junior wide receiver’s stats tell an interesting story. In

eight wins, Nicks is averaging 21 H2H points. In four losses his average drops to

10. So, it’s fair to say as Nicks goes, so go the Heels. These are two very evenly

matched teams. If North Carolina wins, you can bet Nicks will have a great deal

to do with it, thus you have to have him in your lineup. However, if you think

West Virginia has the upper hand here, no problem, there are other cheap options.

2) Michael Floyd, Notre Dame (2.6M, 125.60 efficiency rating)

Opponent: Hawaii in Hawaii Bowl

Points in Last Game: 11

Season High: 32

Analysis: All indications are that Floyd will play in the Hawaii Bowl despite

missing the last three games due to a knee injury. Floyd’s per game numbers are

better than that of fellow wideout Golden Tate but you can have Floyd on your

squad for a third of the price. Prior to his injury he was averaging about 17

points per game and if healthy he should have little trouble finding success

against a lower tier defense of the WAC.

3) Derrell Johnson-Koulianos, Iowa (2.0M, 68.85 efficiency rating)

Opponent: South Carolina in Outback Bowl

Points in Last Game: 31

Season High: 31

Analysis: I don’t really see the point here as I’ve already given you the two

cheapie receivers you should use but I’ll toot this guy’s horn for all of the

Hawkeye fans out there. DJK recently had his best outing of the season in a 55-0

romp of Minnesota. There, I’m done tooting.

4) Rich Gunnell, Boston College (2.1M, 60.87 efficiency rating)

Opponent: Vanderbilt in Music City Bowl

Points in Last Game: 24

Season High: 29

Analysis: Another formality. Gunnell has quietly been averaging in double

figures this season on a team with a limited passing attack. Expect that to be even

more limited as the Golden Eagles face a stout pass defending Vandy team. Next,

please.

5) Dez Bryant, Oklahoma State (14.0M, 59.98 efficiency rating)

Opponent: Oregon in Holiday Bowl

Points in Last Game: 27

Season High: 56

Analysis: Now we’re talking! Byrant is the game’s second best wide receiver but

by far your best option during this period. He’s capable of 50 point outbursts and

will face and Oregon Duck team highly susceptible to the pass. I’m sure the

Ducks will be diligently trying to decide how to stop him but teams have been

doing that all year and for the most part unsuccessfully. I’m not expecting 50 and

anything above 30 and I’ll be happy. However if he stumbles to a 20 point outing

I’ll be completely DEZtraught. Then again so will 400 or so other owners so I

guess that levels the playing field.

Best Bet: Dez Bryant

Top 5 Value Kickers

Are you serious? If winning your game comes down to the kicker, then you, my

friend, have done a poor job in selecting your lineup. All kidding aside, the range in

value from the best kicker to the worst kicker is negligible so you might as well play

pin the tail on the kicker. Or do what everyone else does and fill the other positions

and see what you have left. Honestly, I’m 14-0 and the kicker wasn’t the difference in

any of them.

Best Bet: Jason Bondzio (Why? Because he’s all I can afford)

5 Defenses I Like

Wake Forest vs. Navy

Notre Dame vs. Hawaii

Rutgers vs. NC State

Vanderbilt vs. Boston College

Georgia Tech vs. LSU

Best Bet: Georgia Tech

GOOD LUCK TO ALL! BEST WISHES AND HAPPY HOLIDAYS!

[Vince Mullins]

seems to me the complexity of this game just shot a lot higher! Or is it just that I have to get my self used to the new dollar values (nice knowing you value TEs...)?